Forecasters warn of the historic event persisting through February 2027, threatening crops, reefs, and populations across multiple continents amid record warmth.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the 2026–27 El Niño has intensified into what forecasters now describe as a historic, potentially record-breaking event, and it has reached “very strong” levels expected to persist through at least February 2027 with near-certainty.

This unfolding climate pattern is occurring against a backdrop of unprecedented global temperatures, compounding risks for agriculture, ecosystems, and human health worldwide.

Seasonal forecasting models indicate this El Niño could surpass the intensity of the 2015–16 event, previously the strongest on record. Also:

  • In September 2026, the NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory reported that all 30 ensemble members in its model project the current event will “compete with, if not surpass, the strongest events in the historical record.”
  • Similarly the Weather Channel has noted the event is “likely to become the strongest on record in over 75 years.” Impacts are already emerging: Indonesia is enduring its worst wildfire season in more than a decade, with peatland fires exacerbated by El Niño-driven drought.
  • Carbon Brief has reported that fire emissions are tracking toward matching Indonesia’s most severe season this century, echoing 2015 when 2.6 million hectares burned.]
  • CNN, citing Indonesia’s Health Ministry, noted more than 50,000 respiratory infections have been linked to the fires so far.]
  • In southern Africa, the Southern African Development Community’s 2026–27 outlook forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of the region during the critical farming season.
  • A UN-backed alert in August 2026 has warned of a greater than 90% likelihood of very strong El Niño intensity.]
  • Reuters has reported that Peruvian authorities estimate roughly 1.2m people could face flooding and landslides as the event intensifies.
  • A forthcoming analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization could show climate-related development finance for agri-food systems fell 10% in 2024, even as overall climate funding declined by 2%. Crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries received only 5 % of total climate finance that year.
  • Kaveh Zahedi, writing in Climate Change News, has cautioned that “cutting investment in the people who produce our food just as climate risks intensify does not save money. It simply pushes a much larger bill into the next harvest.”
  • Goldman Sachs analysts estimate this El Niño could lift global food commodity prices by more than 15%, according to ABC News.
  • An analysis on The Climate Brink emphasized that “only El Niño can force globally synchronous crop failures,” given its capacity to simultaneously threaten maize in southern Africa, rice across Southeast Asia and the Philippines, and diverse crops in northern South America.

Looking ahead, 2027 is projected with 95–96% probability to become the warmest year on record, amplifying secondary impacts beyond agriculture. Coral reefs still recovering from the 2023–24 mass bleaching event face renewed thermal stress, while tropical drought is expected to weaken the global land carbon sink.

For now, the most immediate and reliable impacts remain concentrated around the tropical Pacific and the Americas, where preparedness for drought and flooding is, as one assessment put it, “urgently needed now before the rains or droughts arrive.”