Pacific temperatures may exceed averages by 3°C, intensifying storms, drought, and future global heat records, experts predict from current trends

According to a report in the SF Chronicle, Earth’s oceans reached their highest recorded surface temperature last Friday (21 August 2026), as a powerful El Niño develops on top of decades of climate warming.

The average sea-surface temperature has climbed to 21.1 degrees Celsius (70 degrees Fahrenheit), narrowly exceeding the previous record of 21.09 degrees Celsius, which was reached several times in early 2024, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The measurement covers ocean areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north latitude, and draws on observations from satellites, buoys, and ships. It represents the hottest day recorded since daily sea-surface temperature monitoring began in 1979, while the corresponding monthly average was the highest observed since records dating back to at least 1854.

Global-warming milestones predicted

The milestone comes as El Niño strengthens across the Pacific. In July, the journal Nature had reported that the 2026 event could become the strongest in at least 150 years. Britain’s Met Office has forecast that temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius above average as the event approaches its peak — an intensity described by the agency’s chief of long-range forecasting, as unprecedented in modern records. JP O’Brien, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has commented: “If this continues on the current trajectory, this is going to be an El Niño event that is without precedent.”

Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, has warned that El Niño can temporarily raise global temperatures, but stressed that the underlying records are being driven by human-caused climate change. The ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the additional heat trapped by greenhouse-gas emissions, helping shield the atmosphere from an even faster rise in temperature, according to one NASA report. The ocean heat is already influencing weather around the world:

  • The eastern Pacific hurricane season has intensified, including Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve in late July and Tropical Storm Lala, which brought destructive conditions to Hawaii’s Big Island last week.
  • Lala had produced strong winds and heavy rain, with forecasters warning that some areas could receive exceptionally high rainfall totals.
  • Drought conditions are affecting Panama, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said the consequences of El Niño would be extensive and affect a broad region. “Get ready, because it’s going to be a wild ride,” he said.

Scientists expect the final months of 2026 to challenge global heat records. The unusually high temperatures could persist into 2027, which the Met Office says is very likely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded, according to reporting from Reuters.