A jointly-produced report forecasts regional gross merchandise value exceeding US$1tn by 2035, while projecting AI usage could rise as much as 60-fold by 2030

Based on a data analysis of digital-economy transactions, consumer research, industry sources and expert interviews across South-east Asia, a research group has shared some findings on the region’s projected digital-economy growth and AI adoption rates with the media.

First, the report projected that the region’s digital economy would reach US$368bn in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2026, representing 17% year-on-year growth. It projected that GMV would exceed US$1 trillion by 2035.

Second, the report projected that e-commerce GMV would reach US$226bn in 2026, up 18% year on year. Online travel GMV was projected at US$59bn, up 10%; online media revenue at US$44bn, up 22%; and mobility and food-delivery GMV at US$40bn, up 15%.

Other findings

Third, the report stated that 243m people in the six largest Southeast Asian markets — 58% of the working population — had adopted generative AI in under three years. Also:

  • Regional AI usage was estimated at 5m to 7m tokens per person, or about 10% of the corresponding US level.
  • Among surveyed AI users, 72% had indicated reliance on everyday automations, while 75% had indicated willingness to let AI agents find prices and complete purchases autonomously.
  • Among surveyed AI users, 62% had indicated greater trust in AI tools than a year earlier; 44% had cited privacy protections and 30% had cited the ability to undo autonomous actions as requirements for responsible deployment.
  • AI usage was projected to possibly increase by as much as 60-fold by 2030, contingent on agentic adoption, data-center capacity, model efficiency and enterprise economics.
  • Private funding for the region’s digital-applications sector was stated to have stabilized at about US$8bn annually, while firms with core AI products had captured 80% of deal value in the preceding six months.
  • The private-capital deal value in the region’s AI compute and digital-infrastructure sector was stated to have reached US$20bn over 12 months, including an US$11bn acquisition of ST Telemedia Global Data Centers.

According to Google, Temasek and Bain & Company, the firms that jointly produced the report, the findings combined Bain analysis, Temasek insights, Google Trends, expert interviews, industry sources and research partners. The public materials reviewed did not disclose the full economic model behind the US$368bn and US$1tn projections, the sampling and questionnaire design behind consumer-trust findings, or the measurement basis for AI token usage. The 60-fold projection and sector growth figures were forecasts, not observed 2026 outcomes.

Methodology note: The report covered 10 South-east Asian markets, while the 243-million AI-adoption figure applied to the six largest markets. Consumer findings were based on a survey of 9,006 AI users in those six markets conducted in July 2026; the report’s public materials did not disclose question wording, weighting or margins of error.