The South-east Asia region is expected to simultaneously reap opportunities and face challenges as a result of the US-China tensions

Based on its own research methods and other data sources*, a global management consulting firm has released a report predicting five “wildcards” that will shape the outlook for South-east Asia (SEA) and the world in the next five years.

The report explores key global disruptions and business opportunities, with a spotlight on the rise of the Global South (encompassing “middle powers” such as Indonesia and Vietnam); the evolving trade landscape; technological shifts; and the growing influence of individuals in shaping global dynamics, as a central theme of the report.

With a young and dynamic workforce, growing economic influence, and an expanding role in global trade, South-east Asia is deemed by the consultancy as “poised to be a key player” in the predicted transformation.

Key SEA predictions

The consultancy predicts that by 2030, the ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) will become the fourth-largest economy globally, with a combined GDP of US$4.5tn. The region’s strategic positioning will make it a vital driver of global change, asserts the firm. Also:

  • Amid US-China tensions, the rise of the “middle powers” will create critical production hubs and trade bridges that attract investment while allowing regional players to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics.
  • On the sidelines of super powers’ trade wars, some parts of SEA will be bracing for the impact of potential tariff escalation and rising protectionism globally. The long-term effects of tariffs on consumers and businesses; the environment, and the world’s poorest countries, among others, will likely be adverse.
  • Rapid technological adoption and AI advancements will contribute to surging electricity demand across SEA. Governments and businesses will have to work together to build resilient and sustainable energy infrastructure.
  • To address cyber risks, corruption and fraud amplified by technology, more public-private collaboration will be needed, particularly in sectors like critical minerals.
  • Influencers and innovators will be leveraging digital platforms to mobilize social, environmental, and economic change. This will create both opportunities and challenges for businesses, including industry disruptions and corporate social responsibility and environmental, social and governance engagement.

According to Varun Arora, Lead Partner (Southeast Asia), Kearney, the consultancy releasing its predictions report: “AI advancements could lift GDP across SEA by 10% to 18% by 2030 — bringing unprecedented opportunities. However, the region is not yet ready to meet the surging power demands this growth entails, putting immense pressure on sustainability targets and infrastructure resilience. Governments and businesses must act decisively to address these challenges. At the same time, the region must prepare for emerging risks… as its global economic prominence rises… To thrive in this environment, businesses must think boldly, invest sustainably, and leverage the region’s unique strengths to unlock opportunities.”

*Not cited in the full report available to the media