Pacific sea-surface temperatures shatter records; federal forecasters expect intensification through 2026, with droughts, weaker monsoons, wildfire risks, and warmer US winters
Scientists say the current El Niño in the Pacific has already shattered sea-surface temperature records and could become the strongest such event in up to 1,000 years. US federal forecasters expect it to intensify further through the end of 2026.
Mat Collins, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, has said that the event has reached record levels, and may end up as the most powerful El Niño of the past millennium. Also, on the BBC’s More or Less program, another climate researcher has said it is “not beyond the realm of possibility” that this could be the strongest in 500 to 1,000 years.
Also, on the BBC’s More or Less program, another climate researcher has said it is “not beyond the realm of possibility” that this could be the strongest in 500 to 1,000 years.
More writing on the wall
On 2 October 2026, a coalition of scientists and public figures had launched a campaign urging governments to start preparing immediately. Also:
- On 19 September 2026, according to The Washington Post, daily temperatures in the Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region had hit 3.05°C above average — the highest daily reading on record and about two months earlier than the previous peak in November 2015.
- On 21 September 2026, Carbon Brief reported a slightly higher figure of 3.11°C, with differences stemming from each dataset’s baseline.
- NOAA has not yet declared this the strongest El Niño on record because its official Relative Oceanic Niño Index relies on three-month averages; by that metric, the event has not surpassed the 1997 – 98 episode, Science News noted.
- The Climate Prediction Center assigns more than a 90% probability of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75% chance that the October – December period will exceed any El Niño since 1950.
- Models compiled by Carbon Brief project a peak near 4.1°C between November and January. The “millennium” framing draws on an August study in Science that used Galápagos corals to show El Niños over the last 40 years are nearly 40% stronger than pre-industrial events and stronger than any in the prior 1,000 years.
Globally, the phenomenon has been linked to drought and crop failures in Central America, a weaker monsoon in India, and elevated wildfire risk in Indonesia. In the US, the National Weather Service forecasts a warmer, less snowy winter for southern Wisconsin, while Kansas may see slightly above-average precipitation, though assistant state climatologist Matthew Sittel stressed this is an average tendency, “not a guarantee.”
NPR reported that NOAA is scaling back research on El Niño even as the event grows.
Finally, the Alerta El Niño campaign, launched by filmmaker Adam McKay’s Yellow Dot Studios and backed by celebrities Jane Fonda, Mark Ruffalo and Javier Bardem, is calling on governments to incorporate El Niño risks into emergency planning, EFE reported.
Spanish researcher Antonio Turiel has warned that some cities in southern Spain could hit 50°C next summer, and said authorities must act “now to mitigate the effects of what is coming.”
