Can we expect less monetary easing by the Fed this year?

According to the mixed results of a 644-respondent quarterly global survey among finance and accounting professionals, the possibility could exist…

In a 20 February and 7 March 2024 survey of 644 members of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and 164 members of the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA) on their sentiments about global economic conditions, several trends were observed in the Asia Pacific region data.

First, respondents in Q1 2024 (in most regions) were moderately more confident in the global economy than those in similar quarterly reviews since Q2 2023. Small increases to the “new orders” and “employment” indices were also slightly above historical averages. There was a small decline in the “capital expenditure index”, which remained below average. 

Second, the data from APAC respondents was the third largest on record and may reflect growing confidence in the economic situations of the US, China, Japan and the wider world. A moderate rise in confidence in Western Europe respondents could suggest that growth may be gradually improving from the weakness of recent quarters. 

Third, global concerns about increased operating costs had risen in the Q1 survey, although they remained below the historical peak in Q3 2022. Concerns about costs eased again in North America and Western Europe while remaining elevated by historical standards. Cost concerns rose noticeably in Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and South Asia.

Fourth, respondents across all sectors and regions indicated that they were feeling the impact of talent retention risks, with numerous respondents describing the skills shortage as “an epidemic”. Respondents also viewed cybersecurity as a significant threat, especially with advancements in generative AI making ransomware and other cybercrimes increasingly easier and quicker to carry out.

According to the ACCA’s Chief Economist, Jonathan Ashworth, the survey points to some improvement in Q1 2024 global growth but the global economy is “facing many risks and challenges and still set for below average growth in 2024.” The IMA’s Senior Director of Research and Thought Leadership, Susie Duong, noted that the survey data could mean “we are likely to see less monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this year than investors expected a few months ago.”